Skip to content
Match XI
MATCH XI

Find your football

Finding your football…

Premier League

Forecast record

Premier League · Published predictions and official starters

24-hour method: 8.9 of 11 starters matched on average across 28 evaluated team forecasts (21 matches). Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.

Earlier deadlines: 9.0 of 11 starters matched on average across 8 evaluated team forecasts (6 matches). Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.

Reset

24-hour method

Method set on 12 September 2026, before these deadlines.

Starters matched
250 / 308
Team forecasts
2821 matches
Awaiting evaluation
17
Excluded
61

Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.

Recorded through 1 Nov 2026, 18:57 UTC.

Showing 101–120 of 120 · All records

Scores use the full team and method selection. The record view and page do not change them.

Does the forecast improve on the previous XI?

We compare the forecast with the unchanged eleven from the team's previous Premier League match, recorded together before the same 24-hour deadline.

Same 9 team forecasts across 7 matches
MethodStarters matched
Match XI forecast80 / 99
Previous XI unchanged83 / 99

Forecast better in 1, tied in 4, worse in 4 team forecasts.

This sample does not establish an advantage on future matches.

Comparison coverage

9 paired · 19 evaluated without a qualified previous XI · 17 awaiting evaluation · 61 excluded.

The comparison uses only paired forecasts. Results above may include forecasts without a recorded baseline. Missing evidence is never scored as zero.

Showing 6 of 106 records in this group.

Not evaluated

Leeds Unitedvs Newcastle United · 14 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Newcastle Unitedvs Leeds United · 14 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Manchester Cityvs Manchester United · 13 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Manchester Unitedvs Manchester City · 13 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Coventry Cityvs Brighton & Hove Albion · 13 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Brighton & Hove Albionvs Coventry City · 13 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Earlier deadlines

These deadlines passed before the method was introduced. Retained public forecasts, not a prospectively specified test.

Starters matched
72 / 88
Team forecasts
86 matches
Awaiting evaluation
0
Excluded
6

Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.

Showing 14 of 14 records in this group.

Evaluated results

Arsenalvs Sunderland · 12 Sept 2026 11 / 11 matched
Every starting selection matched24-hour forecast

Forecast recorded .

Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.

Recorded before the 24-hour method was introduced.

All 11 predicted starters were in the official XI.

Compare all starters
Starting selection in the recorded forecast and official XI
PlayerForecastOfficial XI
David RayaStarterStarter
Ben WhiteStarterStarter
Ezri KonsaStarterStarter
Gabriel MagalhãesStarterStarter
Riccardo CalafioriStarterStarter
Declan RiceStarterStarter
Myles Lewis-SkellyStarterStarter
Bukayo SakaStarterStarter
Martin ØdegaardStarterStarter
Christos TzolisStarterStarter
Kai HavertzStarterStarter
Forecast version & sources
Forecast recorded
24-hour cutoff
Forecast prepared
Model checked
Official source collected

A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.

The method was set after this match's cutoff. This retained forecast is not a prospectively specified test.

These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.

Evidence at forecast time

All 11 starters matched. There are no missed starters to review.

Evertonvs Tottenham Hotspur · 12 Sept 2026 9 / 11 matched
2 starters differed from the forecast24-hour forecast

Forecast recorded .

Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.

Recorded before the 24-hour method was introduced.

Started, not predicted2

  • Ainsley Maitland-Niles
  • James Garner

Predicted, did not start2

  • Merlin Röhl
  • Hayden Hackney

Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.

Compare all starters
Starting selection in the recorded forecast and official XI
PlayerForecastOfficial XI
Jordan PickfordStarterStarter
Ainsley Maitland-NilesNot a starterStarter
James TarkowskiStarterStarter
Jarrad BranthwaiteStarterStarter
Vitalii MykolenkoStarterStarter
Harrison ArmstrongStarterStarter
James GarnerNot a starterStarter
Brennan JohnsonStarterStarter
Kiernan Dewsbury-HallStarterStarter
Tyrique GeorgeStarterStarter
Thierno BarryStarterStarter
Merlin RöhlStarterNot a starter
Hayden HackneyStarterNot a starter
Forecast version & sources
Forecast recorded
24-hour cutoff
Forecast prepared
Model checked
Official source collected

A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.

The method was set after this match's cutoff. This retained forecast is not a prospectively specified test.

These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.

Evidence at forecast time

Review of missed starters

Predicted, not selected

  • Merlin RöhlAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Hayden HackneyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

Selected, not predicted

  • Ainsley Maitland-NilesAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • James GarnerAt forecast: OutNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.

Times and sources for this review

Forecast recorded ; prepared .

Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.

Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI

9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.

Merlin Röhl
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Hayden Hackney
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
James Garner
At forecast: Out. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected

Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.

AFC Bournemouthvs Brentford · 12 Sept 2026 11 / 11 matched
Every starting selection matched24-hour forecast

Forecast recorded .

Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.

Recorded before the 24-hour method was introduced.

All 11 predicted starters were in the official XI.

Compare all starters
Starting selection in the recorded forecast and official XI
PlayerForecastOfficial XI
Djordje PetrovicStarterStarter
Adam SmithStarterStarter
James HillStarterStarter
António SilvaStarterStarter
Adrien TruffertStarterStarter
Tyler AdamsStarterStarter
Alex ScottStarterStarter
RayanStarterStarter
Justin KluivertStarterStarter
Marcus TavernierStarterStarter
EvanilsonStarterStarter
Forecast version & sources
Forecast recorded
24-hour cutoff
Forecast prepared
Model checked
Official source collected

A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.

The method was set after this match's cutoff. This retained forecast is not a prospectively specified test.

These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.

Evidence at forecast time

All 11 starters matched. There are no missed starters to review.

Brentfordvs AFC Bournemouth · 12 Sept 2026 7 / 11 matched
4 starters differed from the forecast24-hour forecast

Forecast recorded .

Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.

Recorded before the 24-hour method was introduced.

Started, not predicted4

  • Aaron Hickey
  • Jannik Schuster
  • Jaidon Anthony
  • Yehor Yarmoliuk

Predicted, did not start4

  • Michael Kayode
  • Nathan Collins
  • Mikkel Damsgaard
  • Dango Ouattara

Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.

Compare all starters
Starting selection in the recorded forecast and official XI
PlayerForecastOfficial XI
Caoimhín KelleherStarterStarter
Aaron HickeyNot a starterStarter
Jannik SchusterNot a starterStarter
Kristoffer AjerStarterStarter
Keane Lewis-PotterStarterStarter
Mamadou SangaréStarterStarter
Vitaly JaneltStarterStarter
Jaidon AnthonyNot a starterStarter
Yehor YarmoliukNot a starterStarter
Kevin SchadeStarterStarter
Igor ThiagoStarterStarter
Michael KayodeStarterNot a starter
Nathan CollinsStarterNot a starter
Mikkel DamsgaardStarterNot a starter
Dango OuattaraStarterNot a starter
Forecast version & sources
Forecast recorded
24-hour cutoff
Forecast prepared
Model checked
Official source collected

A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.

The method was set after this match's cutoff. This retained forecast is not a prospectively specified test.

These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.

Evidence at forecast time

Review of missed starters

Predicted, not selected

  • Michael KayodeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Nathan CollinsAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Mikkel DamsgaardAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Dango OuattaraAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

Selected, not predicted

  • Aaron HickeyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Jannik SchusterAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Jaidon AnthonyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Yehor YarmoliukAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.

Times and sources for this review

Forecast recorded ; prepared .

Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.

Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI

7 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 7 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.

Michael Kayode
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Nathan Collins
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Mikkel Damsgaard
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Dango Ouattara
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Aaron Hickey
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Jannik Schuster
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Jaidon Anthony
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Yehor Yarmoliuk
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.

Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.

Nottingham Forestvs Aston Villa · 12 Sept 2026 9 / 11 matched
2 starters differed from the forecast24-hour forecast

Forecast recorded .

Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.

Recorded before the 24-hour method was introduced.

Started, not predicted2

  • Ousmane Diomande
  • Daniel Muñoz

Predicted, did not start2

  • Jair Cunha
  • Nikola Milenkovic

Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.

Compare all starters
Starting selection in the recorded forecast and official XI
PlayerForecastOfficial XI
Matz SelsStarterStarter
Ola AinaStarterStarter
Ousmane DiomandeNot a starterStarter
MurilloStarterStarter
Daniel MuñozNot a starterStarter
James McAteeStarterStarter
Xaver SchlagerStarterStarter
Neco WilliamsStarterStarter
Dan NdoyeStarterStarter
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteStarterStarter
Liam DelapStarterStarter
Jair CunhaStarterNot a starter
Nikola MilenkovicStarterNot a starter
Forecast version & sources
Forecast recorded
24-hour cutoff
Forecast prepared
Model checked
Official source collected

A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.

The method was set after this match's cutoff. This retained forecast is not a prospectively specified test.

These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.

Evidence at forecast time

Review of missed starters

Predicted, not selected

  • Jair CunhaAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Nikola MilenkovicAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

Selected, not predicted

  • Ousmane DiomandeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Daniel MuñozAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.

Times and sources for this review

Forecast recorded ; prepared .

Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.

Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI

9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.

Jair Cunha
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Nikola Milenkovic
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Ousmane Diomande
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Daniel Muñoz
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.

Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.

Fulhamvs Liverpool · 12 Sept 2026 9 / 11 matched
2 starters differed from the forecast24-hour forecast

Forecast recorded .

Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.

Recorded before the 24-hour method was introduced.

Started, not predicted2

  • David Affengruber
  • Sander Berge

Predicted, did not start2

  • Joachim Andersen
  • César Palacios

Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.

Compare all starters
Starting selection in the recorded forecast and official XI
PlayerForecastOfficial XI
Bernd LenoStarterStarter
Timothy CastagneStarterStarter
David AffengruberNot a starterStarter
Calvin BasseyStarterStarter
Antonee RobinsonStarterStarter
Sander BergeNot a starterStarter
Shea CharlesStarterStarter
Oscar BobbStarterStarter
Josh KingStarterStarter
Alex IwobiStarterStarter
Gonzalo GarcíaStarterStarter
Joachim AndersenStarterNot a starter
César PalaciosStarterNot a starter
Forecast version & sources
Forecast recorded
24-hour cutoff
Forecast prepared
Model checked
Official source collected

A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.

The method was set after this match's cutoff. This retained forecast is not a prospectively specified test.

These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.

Evidence at forecast time

Review of missed starters

Predicted, not selected

  • Joachim AndersenAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • César PalaciosAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

Selected, not predicted

  • David AffengruberAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Sander BergeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.

Times and sources for this review

Forecast recorded ; prepared .

Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.

Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI

9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.

Joachim Andersen
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
César Palacios
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
David Affengruber
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Sander Berge
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.

Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.

Ipswich Townvs Crystal Palace · 12 Sept 2026 9 / 11 matched
2 starters differed from the forecast24-hour forecast

Forecast recorded .

Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.

Recorded before the 24-hour method was introduced.

Started, not predicted2

  • Exequiel Palacios
  • Jack Clarke

Predicted, did not start2

  • Daizen Maeda
  • Marcelino Núñez

Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.

Compare all starters
Starting selection in the recorded forecast and official XI
PlayerForecastOfficial XI
Kjell ScherpenStarterStarter
Dara O'SheaStarterStarter
Issa DiopStarterStarter
Jacob GreavesStarterStarter
Leif DavisStarterStarter
Sasa LukicStarterStarter
Exequiel PalaciosNot a starterStarter
Abdul FatawuStarterStarter
Julio EncisoStarterStarter
Jack ClarkeNot a starterStarter
EmersonnStarterStarter
Daizen MaedaStarterNot a starter
Marcelino NúñezStarterNot a starter
Forecast version & sources
Forecast recorded
24-hour cutoff
Forecast prepared
Model checked
Official source collected

A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.

The method was set after this match's cutoff. This retained forecast is not a prospectively specified test.

These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.

Evidence at forecast time

Review of missed starters

Predicted, not selected

  • Daizen MaedaAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Marcelino NúñezAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

Selected, not predicted

  • Exequiel PalaciosAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Jack ClarkeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.

Times and sources for this review

Forecast recorded ; prepared .

Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.

Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI

9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.

Daizen Maeda
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Marcelino Núñez
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Exequiel Palacios
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Jack Clarke
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.

Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.

Crystal Palacevs Ipswich Town · 12 Sept 2026 7 / 11 matched
4 starters differed from the forecast24-hour forecast

Forecast recorded .

Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.

Recorded before the 24-hour method was introduced.

Started, not predicted4

  • Walter Benítez
  • Axel Disasi
  • Honest Ahanor
  • Jørgen Strand Larsen

Predicted, did not start4

  • Dean Henderson
  • Jaydee Canvot
  • Takehiro Tomiyasu
  • Eddie Nketiah

Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.

Compare all starters
Starting selection in the recorded forecast and official XI
PlayerForecastOfficial XI
Walter BenítezNot a starterStarter
Chris RichardsStarterStarter
Axel DisasiNot a starterStarter
Honest AhanorNot a starterStarter
Anan KhalailiStarterStarter
Quinten TimberStarterStarter
Adam WhartonStarterStarter
Tyrick MitchellStarterStarter
Daichi KamadaStarterStarter
Yéremy PinoStarterStarter
Jørgen Strand LarsenNot a starterStarter
Dean HendersonStarterNot a starter
Jaydee CanvotStarterNot a starter
Takehiro TomiyasuStarterNot a starter
Eddie NketiahStarterNot a starter
Forecast version & sources
Forecast recorded
24-hour cutoff
Forecast prepared
Model checked
Official source collected

A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.

The method was set after this match's cutoff. This retained forecast is not a prospectively specified test.

These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.

Evidence at forecast time

Review of missed starters

Predicted, not selected

  • Dean HendersonAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Jaydee CanvotAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Takehiro TomiyasuAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Eddie NketiahAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

Selected, not predicted

  • Walter BenítezAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Axel DisasiAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Honest AhanorAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
  • Jørgen Strand LarsenAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.

An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.

Times and sources for this review

Forecast recorded ; prepared .

Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.

Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI

7 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 7 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.

Dean Henderson
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Jaydee Canvot
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Takehiro Tomiyasu
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Eddie Nketiah
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Walter Benítez
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Axel Disasi
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Honest Ahanor
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Jørgen Strand Larsen
At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.

Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.

Review evidence · 8 of 8 evaluated forecasts

Across 32 differences in starting status:

Availability row at forecast
1
Later recorded change
0
Neither recorded
31

These evidence groups can overlap. They describe saved records, not the cause of a missed starter.

Not evaluated

Sunderlandvs Arsenal · 12 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Tottenham Hotspurvs Everton · 12 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Aston Villavs Nottingham Forest · 12 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Liverpoolvs Fulham · 12 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Hull Cityvs Chelsea · 12 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

Chelseavs Hull City · 12 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated

The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.

Last recorded answer

What the record measures

History begins 10 Sept 2026, 20:30 UTC.

Starters matched, not formation, positions, match outcomes or betting returns. Each team counts once per method; corrections replace its score, not its place in the sample. Excluded and pending answers are not counted as zero.

Only actual confirmed public observations are retained. Past forecasts are never rebuilt using today's data. The two methods and the earlier-deadline group are not combined.