Forecast record
Premier League · Published predictions and official starters
24-hour method: 8.9 of 11 starters matched on average across 28 evaluated team forecasts (21 matches). Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
Earlier deadlines: 9.0 of 11 starters matched on average across 8 evaluated team forecasts (6 matches). Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
24-hour method
Method set on 12 September 2026, before these deadlines.
- Starters matched
- 250 / 308
- Team forecasts
- 2821 matches
- Awaiting evaluation
- 17
- Excluded
- 61
Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
Recorded through 1 Nov 2026, 18:57 UTC.
Showing 21–40 of 120 · All records
Scores use the full team and method selection. The record view and page do not change them.
Does the forecast improve on the previous XI?
We compare the forecast with the unchanged eleven from the team's previous Premier League match, recorded together before the same 24-hour deadline.
| Method | Starters matched |
|---|---|
| Match XI forecast | 80 / 99 |
| Previous XI unchanged | 83 / 99 |
Forecast better in 1, tied in 4, worse in 4 team forecasts.
This sample does not establish an advantage on future matches.
Comparison coverage
9 paired · 19 evaluated without a qualified previous XI · 17 awaiting evaluation · 61 excluded.
The comparison uses only paired forecasts. Results above may include forecasts without a recorded baseline. Missing evidence is never scored as zero.
Showing 20 of 106 records in this group.
Evaluated results
AFC Bournemouthvs Liverpool · 20 Sept 2026 10 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted1
- Ryan Christie
Predicted, did not start1
- Justin Kluivert
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Djordje Petrovic | Starter | Starter |
| Adam Smith | Starter | Starter |
| James Hill | Starter | Starter |
| António Silva | Starter | Starter |
| Adrien Truffert | Starter | Starter |
| Tyler Adams | Starter | Starter |
| Alex Scott | Starter | Starter |
| Rayan | Starter | Starter |
| Ryan Christie | Not a starter | Starter |
| Marcus Tavernier | Starter | Starter |
| Evanilson | Starter | Starter |
| Justin Kluivert | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Justin KluivertAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Ryan ChristieAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
10 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 10 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Justin Kluivert
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Ryan Christie
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Leeds Unitedvs Crystal Palace · 20 Sept 2026 11 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
All 11 predicted starters were in the official XI.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| James Trafford | Starter | Starter |
| James Justin | Starter | Starter |
| Nico Elvedi | Starter | Starter |
| Tarik Muharemovic | Starter | Starter |
| Jayden Bogle | Starter | Starter |
| Anton Stach | Starter | Starter |
| Ethan Ampadu | Starter | Starter |
| Ao Tanaka | Starter | Starter |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson | Starter | Starter |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Starter | Starter |
| Noah Okafor | Starter | Starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
All 11 starters matched. There are no missed starters to review.
Manchester Cityvs Sunderland · 20 Sept 2026 9 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted2
- Matheus Nunes
- Iliman Ndiaye
Predicted, did not start2
- Abdukodir Khusanov
- Nico O'Reilly
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | Starter | Starter |
| Matheus Nunes | Not a starter | Starter |
| Rúben Dias | Starter | Starter |
| Marc Guéhi | Starter | Starter |
| Josko Gvardiol | Starter | Starter |
| Enzo Fernández | Starter | Starter |
| Elliot Anderson | Starter | Starter |
| Iliman Ndiaye | Not a starter | Starter |
| Rayan Cherki | Starter | Starter |
| Antoine Semenyo | Starter | Starter |
| Erling Haaland | Starter | Starter |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | Starter | Not a starter |
| Nico O'Reilly | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Abdukodir KhusanovAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Nico O'ReillyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Matheus NunesAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Iliman NdiayeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Abdukodir Khusanov
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Nico O'Reilly
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Matheus Nunes
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Iliman Ndiaye
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Sunderlandvs Manchester City · 20 Sept 2026 10 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted1
- Dayann Méthalie
Predicted, did not start1
- Trai Hume
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Roefs | Starter | Starter |
| Nordi Mukiele | Starter | Starter |
| Kevin Danso | Starter | Starter |
| Dan Ballard | Starter | Starter |
| Dayann Méthalie | Not a starter | Starter |
| Granit Xhaka | Starter | Starter |
| Noah Sadiki | Starter | Starter |
| Thomas Meunier | Starter | Starter |
| Enzo Le Fée | Starter | Starter |
| Nilson Angulo | Starter | Starter |
| Brian Brobbey | Starter | Starter |
| Trai Hume | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Trai HumeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Dayann MéthalieAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
10 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 10 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Trai Hume
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Dayann Méthalie
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Ipswich Townvs Everton · 19 Sept 2026 7 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted4
- Christian Walton
- Abdoul Ouattara
- Exequiel Palacios
- Jack Clarke
Predicted, did not start4
- Kjell Scherpen
- Jacob Greaves
- Marcelino Núñez
- Daizen Maeda
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walton | Not a starter | Starter |
| Abdoul Ouattara | Not a starter | Starter |
| Issa Diop | Starter | Starter |
| Dara O'Shea | Starter | Starter |
| Leif Davis | Starter | Starter |
| Sasa Lukic | Starter | Starter |
| Exequiel Palacios | Not a starter | Starter |
| Abdul Fatawu | Starter | Starter |
| Julio Enciso | Starter | Starter |
| Jack Clarke | Not a starter | Starter |
| Emersonn | Starter | Starter |
| Kjell Scherpen | Starter | Not a starter |
| Jacob Greaves | Starter | Not a starter |
| Marcelino Núñez | Starter | Not a starter |
| Daizen Maeda | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Kjell ScherpenAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Jacob GreavesAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Marcelino NúñezAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Daizen MaedaAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Christian WaltonAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Abdoul OuattaraAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Exequiel PalaciosAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Jack ClarkeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
7 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 7 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Kjell Scherpen
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Jacob Greaves
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Marcelino Núñez
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Daizen Maeda
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Christian Walton
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Abdoul Ouattara
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Exequiel Palacios
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Jack Clarke
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Evertonvs Ipswich Town · 19 Sept 2026 9 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted2
- James Garner
- Jack Grealish
Predicted, did not start2
- Tyrique George
- Hayden Hackney
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Pickford | Starter | Starter |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles | Starter | Starter |
| James Tarkowski | Starter | Starter |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | Starter | Starter |
| Vitalii Mykolenko | Starter | Starter |
| Harrison Armstrong | Starter | Starter |
| James Garner | Not a starter | Starter |
| Brennan Johnson | Starter | Starter |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | Starter | Starter |
| Jack Grealish | Not a starter | Starter |
| Thierno Barry | Starter | Starter |
| Tyrique George | Starter | Not a starter |
| Hayden Hackney | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Tyrique GeorgeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Hayden HackneyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- James GarnerAt forecast: OutNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Jack GrealishAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Tyrique George
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Hayden Hackney
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- James Garner
- At forecast: Out. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Jack Grealish
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Aston Villavs Tottenham Hotspur · 19 Sept 2026 7 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted4
- Tyrone Mings
- Matteo Ruggeri
- João Gomes
- Johan Manzambi
Predicted, did not start4
- Matty Cash
- Pau Torres
- George Hemmings
- Ross Barkley
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Zion Suzuki | Starter | Starter |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka | Starter | Starter |
| Victor Lindelöf | Starter | Starter |
| Tyrone Mings | Not a starter | Starter |
| Matteo Ruggeri | Not a starter | Starter |
| Boubacar Kamara | Starter | Starter |
| João Gomes | Not a starter | Starter |
| John McGinn | Starter | Starter |
| Johan Manzambi | Not a starter | Starter |
| Emiliano Buendía | Starter | Starter |
| Nicolas Jackson | Starter | Starter |
| Matty Cash | Starter | Not a starter |
| Pau Torres | Starter | Not a starter |
| George Hemmings | Starter | Not a starter |
| Ross Barkley | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Matty CashAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Pau TorresAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- George HemmingsAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Ross BarkleyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Tyrone MingsAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Matteo RuggeriAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- João GomesAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Johan ManzambiAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
7 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 7 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Matty Cash
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Pau Torres
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- George Hemmings
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Ross Barkley
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Tyrone Mings
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Matteo Ruggeri
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- João Gomes
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Johan Manzambi
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Brentfordvs Chelsea · 18 Sept 2026 9 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted2
- Jannik Schuster
- Mikkel Damsgaard
Predicted, did not start2
- Nathan Collins
- Mamadou Sangaré
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Caoimhín Kelleher | Starter | Starter |
| Michael Kayode | Starter | Starter |
| Jannik Schuster | Not a starter | Starter |
| Kristoffer Ajer | Starter | Starter |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | Starter | Starter |
| Yehor Yarmoliuk | Starter | Starter |
| Vitaly Janelt | Starter | Starter |
| Jaidon Anthony | Starter | Starter |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | Not a starter | Starter |
| Kevin Schade | Starter | Starter |
| Igor Thiago | Starter | Starter |
| Nathan Collins | Starter | Not a starter |
| Mamadou Sangaré | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Nathan CollinsAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Mamadou SangaréAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Jannik SchusterAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Mikkel DamsgaardAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Nathan Collins
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Mamadou Sangaré
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Jannik Schuster
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Mikkel Damsgaard
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Review evidence · 28 of 28 evaluated forecasts
Across 116 differences in starting status:
- Availability row at forecast
- 14
- Later recorded change
- 3
- Neither recorded
- 100
These evidence groups can overlap. They describe saved records, not the cause of a missed starter.
Awaiting evaluation
Ipswich Townvs Nottingham Forest · 23 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Nottingham Forestvs Ipswich Town · 23 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Arsenalvs Everton · 24 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Evertonvs Arsenal · 24 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Fulhamvs Coventry City · 24 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Crystal Palacevs Newcastle United · 25 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Newcastle Unitedvs Crystal Palace · 25 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
AFC Bournemouthvs Manchester United · 25 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Sunderlandvs Leeds United · 25 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Leeds Unitedvs AFC Bournemouth · 31 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
Nottingham Forestvs Brentford · 31 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
Manchester Cityvs Brighton & Hove Albion · 31 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
Earlier deadlines
These deadlines passed before the method was introduced. Retained public forecasts, not a prospectively specified test.
- Starters matched
- 72 / 88
- Team forecasts
- 86 matches
- Awaiting evaluation
- 0
- Excluded
- 6
Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
Showing 0 of 14 records in this group.
No records from this group on this page and view.
What the record measures
History begins 10 Sept 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Starters matched, not formation, positions, match outcomes or betting returns. Each team counts once per method; corrections replace its score, not its place in the sample. Excluded and pending answers are not counted as zero.
Only actual confirmed public observations are retained. Past forecasts are never rebuilt using today's data. The two methods and the earlier-deadline group are not combined.