Forecast record
Newcastle United · Published predictions and official starters
24-hour method: 7.5 of 11 starters matched on average across 2 evaluated team forecasts (2 matches). Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
No retained record for this team, match and method. Other results below are not a substitute.
24-hour method
Method set on 12 September 2026, before these deadlines.
- Starters matched
- 15 / 22
- Team forecasts
- 22 matches
- Awaiting evaluation
- 0
- Excluded
- 4
Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
Recorded through 3 Nov 2026, 07:45 UTC.
Showing 1–6 of 6 · All records
Scores use the full team and method selection. The record view and page do not change them.
Does the forecast improve on the previous XI?
We compare the forecast with the unchanged eleven from the team's previous Premier League match, recorded together before the same 24-hour deadline.
| Method | Starters matched |
|---|---|
| Match XI forecast | 15 / 22 |
| Previous XI unchanged | 16 / 22 |
Forecast better in 0, tied in 1, worse in 1 team forecasts.
This sample does not establish an advantage on future matches.
Comparison coverage
2 paired · 0 evaluated without a qualified previous XI · 0 awaiting evaluation · 4 excluded.
The comparison uses only paired forecasts. Results above may include forecasts without a recorded baseline. Missing evidence is never scored as zero.
Showing 6 of 6 records in this group.
Evaluated results
Newcastle Unitedvs Crystal Palace · 25 Oct 2026 6 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted5
- Fabian Schär
- Dan Burn
- Joelinton
- Jacob Murphy
- William Osula
Predicted, did not start5
- Malick Thiaw
- Sven Botman
- Lewis Miley
- Yoane Wissa
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Lukás Hornícek | Starter | Starter |
| Amar Dedic | Starter | Starter |
| Fabian Schär | Not a starter | Starter |
| Dan Burn | Not a starter | Starter |
| Lewis Hall | Starter | Starter |
| Nico González | Starter | Starter |
| Joelinton | Not a starter | Starter |
| Jacob Murphy | Not a starter | Starter |
| Joe Willock | Starter | Starter |
| Harvey Barnes | Starter | Starter |
| William Osula | Not a starter | Starter |
| Malick Thiaw | Starter | Not a starter |
| Sven Botman | Starter | Not a starter |
| Lewis Miley | Starter | Not a starter |
| Yoane Wissa | Starter | Not a starter |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Malick ThiawAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Sven BotmanAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Lewis MileyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Yoane WissaAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Matias Fernandez-PardoAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Fabian SchärAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Dan BurnAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- JoelintonAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Jacob MurphyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- William OsulaAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until kickoff at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
6 starters matched: 1 had an availability row at forecast; 5 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Malick Thiaw
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Sven Botman
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Lewis Miley
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Yoane Wissa
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Fabian Schär
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Dan Burn
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Joelinton
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Jacob Murphy
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- William Osula
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Previous XI: 6 / 11 · Forecast: 6 / 11
Unchanged official starters from the previous Premier League match on 17 Oct 2026. Both methods are checked against the same official XI.
Lukás Hornícek · Lewis Miley · Malick Thiaw · Sven Botman · Lewis Hall · Nico González · Joelinton · Matias Fernandez-Pardo · Joe Willock · Harvey Barnes · Yoane Wissa
Recorded with this forecast before the 24-hour deadline. No substitutions for injuries, transfers or later news.
Newcastle Unitedvs Aston Villa · 17 Oct 2026 9 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted2
- Joelinton
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo
Predicted, did not start2
- Amar Dedic
- Jacob Murphy
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Lukás Hornícek | Starter | Starter |
| Lewis Miley | Starter | Starter |
| Malick Thiaw | Starter | Starter |
| Sven Botman | Starter | Starter |
| Lewis Hall | Starter | Starter |
| Nico González | Starter | Starter |
| Joelinton | Not a starter | Starter |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo | Not a starter | Starter |
| Joe Willock | Starter | Starter |
| Harvey Barnes | Starter | Starter |
| Yoane Wissa | Starter | Starter |
| Amar Dedic | Starter | Not a starter |
| Jacob Murphy | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Amar DedicAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Jacob MurphyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- JoelintonAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Matias Fernandez-PardoAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until kickoff at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Amar Dedic
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Jacob Murphy
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Joelinton
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Previous XI: 10 / 11 · Forecast: 9 / 11
Unchanged official starters from the previous Premier League match on 12 Oct 2026. Both methods are checked against the same official XI.
Lukás Hornícek · Lewis Miley · Malick Thiaw · Sven Botman · Lewis Hall · Nico González · Joe Willock · Jacob Murphy · Yoane Wissa · Harvey Barnes · Matias Fernandez-Pardo
Recorded with this forecast before the 24-hour deadline. No substitutions for injuries, transfers or later news.
Review evidence · 2 of 2 evaluated forecasts
Across 14 differences in starting status:
- Availability row at forecast
- 6
- Later recorded change
- 0
- Neither recorded
- 8
These evidence groups can overlap. They describe saved records, not the cause of a missed starter.
Not evaluated
Newcastle Unitedvs Everton · 2 Nov 2026The answer at the deadline came from a restored publication. Not evaluated
The answer at the deadline came from a restored publication.
Newcastle Unitedvs Coventry City · 12 Oct 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated
The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.
Newcastle Unitedvs Hull City · 19 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated
The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.
Newcastle Unitedvs Leeds United · 14 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated
The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.
Earlier deadlines
These deadlines passed before the method was introduced. Retained public forecasts, not a prospectively specified test.
- Starters matched
- Not evaluated
- Team forecasts
- 00 matches
- Awaiting evaluation
- 0
- Excluded
- 0
No retained team/match observations in this group.
What the record measures
History begins 10 Sept 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Starters matched, not formation, positions, match outcomes or betting returns. Each team counts once per method; corrections replace its score, not its place in the sample. Excluded and pending answers are not counted as zero.
Only actual confirmed public observations are retained. Past forecasts are never rebuilt using today's data. The two methods and the earlier-deadline group are not combined.