Forecast record
Sunderland · Published predictions and official starters
24-hour method: 9.3 of 11 starters matched on average across 3 evaluated team forecasts (3 matches). Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
24-hour method
Method set on 12 September 2026, before these deadlines.
- Starters matched
- 28 / 33
- Team forecasts
- 33 matches
- Awaiting evaluation
- 2
- Excluded
- 0
Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
Recorded through 1 Nov 2026, 18:57 UTC.
Showing 1–6 of 6 · All records
Scores use the full team and method selection. The record view and page do not change them.
Does the forecast improve on the previous XI?
We compare the forecast with the unchanged eleven from the team's previous Premier League match, recorded together before the same 24-hour deadline.
| Method | Starters matched |
|---|---|
| Match XI forecast | 8 / 11 |
| Previous XI unchanged | 8 / 11 |
Forecast better in 0, tied in 1, worse in 0 team forecasts.
This sample does not establish an advantage on future matches.
Comparison coverage
1 paired · 2 evaluated without a qualified previous XI · 2 awaiting evaluation · 0 excluded.
The comparison uses only paired forecasts. Results above may include forecasts without a recorded baseline. Missing evidence is never scored as zero.
Showing 5 of 5 records in this group.
Evaluated results
Sunderlandvs AFC Bournemouth · 18 Oct 2026 8 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted3
- Omar Alderete
- Chris Rigg
- Tymur Tutierov
Predicted, did not start3
- Dayann Méthalie
- Nilson Angulo
- Wilson Isidor
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Roefs | Starter | Starter |
| Nordi Mukiele | Starter | Starter |
| Kevin Danso | Starter | Starter |
| Omar Alderete | Not a starter | Starter |
| Reinildo Mandava | Starter | Starter |
| Granit Xhaka | Starter | Starter |
| Noah Sadiki | Starter | Starter |
| Trai Hume | Starter | Starter |
| Chris Rigg | Not a starter | Starter |
| Enzo Le Fée | Starter | Starter |
| Tymur Tutierov | Not a starter | Starter |
| Dayann Méthalie | Starter | Not a starter |
| Nilson Angulo | Starter | Not a starter |
| Wilson Isidor | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Dayann MéthalieAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Nilson AnguloAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Wilson IsidorAt forecast: No availability row recordedLater: Doubtful ·
Selected, not predicted
- Omar AldereteAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Chris RiggAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Tymur TutierovAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until kickoff at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
8 starters matched: 1 had an availability row at forecast; 7 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Dayann Méthalie
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Nilson Angulo
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Wilson Isidor
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- First later recorded change: · prepared . Recorded change
- Before: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- After: Doubtful. Official club team news · Published
- Omar Alderete
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Chris Rigg
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Tymur Tutierov
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Previous XI: 8 / 11 · Forecast: 8 / 11
Unchanged official starters from the previous Premier League match on 10 Oct 2026. Both methods are checked against the same official XI.
Robin Roefs · Trai Hume · Nordi Mukiele · Kevin Danso · Reinildo Mandava · Granit Xhaka · Noah Sadiki · Thomas Meunier · Enzo Le Fée · Nilson Angulo · Wilson Isidor
Recorded with this forecast before the 24-hour deadline. No substitutions for injuries, transfers or later news.
Sunderlandvs Brighton & Hove Albion · 10 Oct 2026 10 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted1
- Wilson Isidor
Predicted, did not start1
- Dayann Méthalie
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Roefs | Starter | Starter |
| Trai Hume | Starter | Starter |
| Nordi Mukiele | Starter | Starter |
| Kevin Danso | Starter | Starter |
| Reinildo Mandava | Starter | Starter |
| Granit Xhaka | Starter | Starter |
| Noah Sadiki | Starter | Starter |
| Thomas Meunier | Starter | Starter |
| Enzo Le Fée | Starter | Starter |
| Nilson Angulo | Starter | Starter |
| Wilson Isidor | Not a starter | Starter |
| Dayann Méthalie | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Dayann MéthalieAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Wilson IsidorAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until kickoff at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
10 starters matched: 2 had an availability row at forecast; 8 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Dayann Méthalie
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Wilson Isidor
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Sunderlandvs Manchester City · 20 Sept 2026 10 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted1
- Dayann Méthalie
Predicted, did not start1
- Trai Hume
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Roefs | Starter | Starter |
| Nordi Mukiele | Starter | Starter |
| Kevin Danso | Starter | Starter |
| Dan Ballard | Starter | Starter |
| Dayann Méthalie | Not a starter | Starter |
| Granit Xhaka | Starter | Starter |
| Noah Sadiki | Starter | Starter |
| Thomas Meunier | Starter | Starter |
| Enzo Le Fée | Starter | Starter |
| Nilson Angulo | Starter | Starter |
| Brian Brobbey | Starter | Starter |
| Trai Hume | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Trai HumeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Dayann MéthalieAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
10 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 10 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Trai Hume
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Dayann Méthalie
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Review evidence · 3 of 3 evaluated forecasts
Across 10 differences in starting status:
- Availability row at forecast
- 1
- Later recorded change
- 1
- Neither recorded
- 8
These evidence groups can overlap. They describe saved records, not the cause of a missed starter.
Awaiting evaluation
Sunderlandvs Leeds United · 25 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing.
Back to match comparisonSunderlandvs Coventry City · 31 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
Earlier deadlines
These deadlines passed before the method was introduced. Retained public forecasts, not a prospectively specified test.
- Starters matched
- Not evaluated
- Team forecasts
- 00 matches
- Awaiting evaluation
- 0
- Excluded
- 1
Showing 1 of 1 records in this group.
Not evaluated
Sunderlandvs Arsenal · 12 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated
The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.
What the record measures
History begins 10 Sept 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Starters matched, not formation, positions, match outcomes or betting returns. Each team counts once per method; corrections replace its score, not its place in the sample. Excluded and pending answers are not counted as zero.
Only actual confirmed public observations are retained. Past forecasts are never rebuilt using today's data. The two methods and the earlier-deadline group are not combined.