Forecast record
Manchester City · Published predictions and official starters
24-hour method: 8.0 of 11 starters matched on average across 3 evaluated team forecasts (3 matches). Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
24-hour method
Method set on 12 September 2026, before these deadlines.
- Starters matched
- 24 / 33
- Team forecasts
- 33 matches
- Awaiting evaluation
- 1
- Excluded
- 2
Early sample; not a reliable estimate of future performance.
Recorded through 1 Nov 2026, 18:57 UTC.
Showing 1–6 of 6 · All records
Scores use the full team and method selection. The record view and page do not change them.
Does the forecast improve on the previous XI?
We compare the forecast with the unchanged eleven from the team's previous Premier League match, recorded together before the same 24-hour deadline.
| Method | Starters matched |
|---|---|
| Match XI forecast | 6 / 11 |
| Previous XI unchanged | 7 / 11 |
Forecast better in 0, tied in 0, worse in 1 team forecasts.
This sample does not establish an advantage on future matches.
Comparison coverage
1 paired · 2 evaluated without a qualified previous XI · 1 awaiting evaluation · 2 excluded.
The comparison uses only paired forecasts. Results above may include forecasts without a recorded baseline. Missing evidence is never scored as zero.
Showing 6 of 6 records in this group.
Evaluated results
Manchester Cityvs Ipswich Town · 17 Oct 2026 6 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted5
- Matheus Nunes
- Mateo Kovacic
- Ayyoub Bouaddi
- Phil Foden
- Jérémy Doku
Predicted, did not start5
- Abdukodir Khusanov
- Rayan Cherki
- Antoine Semenyo
- Elliot Anderson
- Enzo Fernández
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | Starter | Starter |
| Matheus Nunes | Not a starter | Starter |
| Rúben Dias | Starter | Starter |
| Marc Guéhi | Starter | Starter |
| Nico O'Reilly | Starter | Starter |
| Mateo Kovacic | Not a starter | Starter |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | Not a starter | Starter |
| Iliman Ndiaye | Starter | Starter |
| Phil Foden | Not a starter | Starter |
| Jérémy Doku | Not a starter | Starter |
| Erling Haaland | Starter | Starter |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | Starter | Not a starter |
| Rayan Cherki | Starter | Not a starter |
| Antoine Semenyo | Starter | Not a starter |
| Elliot Anderson | Starter | Not a starter |
| Enzo Fernández | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Abdukodir KhusanovAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Rayan CherkiAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Antoine SemenyoAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Elliot AndersonAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Enzo FernándezAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Matheus NunesAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Mateo KovacicAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Ayyoub BouaddiAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Phil FodenAt forecast: No availability row recordedLater: Availability uncertain ·
- Jérémy DokuAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until kickoff at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
6 starters matched: 1 had an availability row at forecast; 5 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Abdukodir Khusanov
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Rayan Cherki
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Antoine Semenyo
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Elliot Anderson
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Enzo Fernández
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Matheus Nunes
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Mateo Kovacic
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Ayyoub Bouaddi
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Phil Foden
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- First later recorded change: · prepared . Recorded change
- Before: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- After: Availability uncertain. Official club team news · Collected
- Jérémy Doku
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Previous XI: 7 / 11 · Forecast: 6 / 11
Unchanged official starters from the previous Premier League match on 11 Oct 2026. Both methods are checked against the same official XI.
Gianluigi Donnarumma · Matheus Nunes · Rúben Dias · Marc Guéhi · Nico O'Reilly · Elliot Anderson · Enzo Fernández · Iliman Ndiaye · Rayan Cherki · Antoine Semenyo · Erling Haaland
Recorded with this forecast before the 24-hour deadline. No substitutions for injuries, transfers or later news.
Manchester Cityvs Liverpool · 11 Oct 2026 9 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted2
- Matheus Nunes
- Nico O'Reilly
Predicted, did not start2
- Josko Gvardiol
- Abdukodir Khusanov
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | Starter | Starter |
| Matheus Nunes | Not a starter | Starter |
| Rúben Dias | Starter | Starter |
| Marc Guéhi | Starter | Starter |
| Nico O'Reilly | Not a starter | Starter |
| Elliot Anderson | Starter | Starter |
| Enzo Fernández | Starter | Starter |
| Iliman Ndiaye | Starter | Starter |
| Rayan Cherki | Starter | Starter |
| Antoine Semenyo | Starter | Starter |
| Erling Haaland | Starter | Starter |
| Josko Gvardiol | Starter | Not a starter |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Josko GvardiolAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Abdukodir KhusanovAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Matheus NunesAt forecast: Availability uncertainNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Nico O'ReillyAt forecast: OutNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until kickoff at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Josko Gvardiol
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Abdukodir Khusanov
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Matheus Nunes
- At forecast: Availability uncertain. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
- Nico O'Reilly
- At forecast: Out. Premier League latest player injuries · Collected
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Manchester Cityvs Sunderland · 20 Sept 2026 9 / 11 matched
Forecast recorded .
Last recorded forecast before the 24-hour cutoff. Its timing before the official announcement is not verified.
Started, not predicted2
- Matheus Nunes
- Iliman Ndiaye
Predicted, did not start2
- Abdukodir Khusanov
- Nico O'Reilly
Starting selections, not substitutions or one-for-one replacements.
Compare all starters
| Player | Forecast | Official XI |
|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | Starter | Starter |
| Matheus Nunes | Not a starter | Starter |
| Rúben Dias | Starter | Starter |
| Marc Guéhi | Starter | Starter |
| Josko Gvardiol | Starter | Starter |
| Enzo Fernández | Starter | Starter |
| Elliot Anderson | Starter | Starter |
| Iliman Ndiaye | Not a starter | Starter |
| Rayan Cherki | Starter | Starter |
| Antoine Semenyo | Starter | Starter |
| Erling Haaland | Starter | Starter |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | Starter | Not a starter |
| Nico O'Reilly | Starter | Not a starter |
Forecast version & sources
- Forecast recorded
- 24-hour cutoff
- Forecast prepared
- Model checked
- Official source collected
A source collection or observation time is not the official announcement time.
These are the saved starting selections, not a forecast rebuilt with later information.
Evidence at forecast time
Review of missed starters
Predicted, not selected
- Abdukodir KhusanovAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Nico O'ReillyAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
Selected, not predicted
- Matheus NunesAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
- Iliman NdiayeAt forecast: No availability row recordedNo later availability change recorded in this review window.
An absent availability row does not confirm fitness. These records do not establish why the manager chose this XI.
Times and sources for this review
Forecast recorded ; prepared .
Later changes are checked only until the first recorded official XI at . The official announcement time is unknown; a later record is not proof that news arrived before the announcement.
Official boundary source: Premier League match centre · Collected . First recorded official XI
9 starters matched: 0 had an availability row at forecast; 9 did not. The same evidence can occur among correct picks.
- Abdukodir Khusanov
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Nico O'Reilly
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Matheus Nunes
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
- Iliman Ndiaye
- At forecast: No availability row recorded; fitness is not confirmed.
Workload effects and model errors cannot be inferred from these availability records. They require inputs saved before the match and a separate evaluation.
Review evidence · 3 of 3 evaluated forecasts
Across 18 differences in starting status:
- Availability row at forecast
- 3
- Later recorded change
- 1
- Neither recorded
- 14
These evidence groups can overlap. They describe saved records, not the cause of a missed starter.
Awaiting evaluation
Manchester Cityvs Brighton & Hove Albion · 31 Oct 202624-hour cutoff: · The deadline has passed; official lineup evidence is still missing. Awaiting evidence
Not evaluated
Manchester Cityvs Aston Villa · 24 Oct 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated
The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.
Manchester Cityvs Manchester United · 13 Sept 2026The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI. Not evaluated
The last answer before the deadline was not an eligible full predicted XI.
Back to match comparisonEarlier deadlines
These deadlines passed before the method was introduced. Retained public forecasts, not a prospectively specified test.
- Starters matched
- Not evaluated
- Team forecasts
- 00 matches
- Awaiting evaluation
- 0
- Excluded
- 0
No retained team/match observations in this group.
What the record measures
History begins 10 Sept 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Starters matched, not formation, positions, match outcomes or betting returns. Each team counts once per method; corrections replace its score, not its place in the sample. Excluded and pending answers are not counted as zero.
Only actual confirmed public observations are retained. Past forecasts are never rebuilt using today's data. The two methods and the earlier-deadline group are not combined.